Load Forecasting

Too Many Forecasters in the Kitchen

When it comes to forecasting the future, humans have had mixed results. Sometimes confusing, frustrating, hair-pulling results.

Here’s one such story.

A large federal utility was struggling with redundant and inefficient short- and long-term forecasts. They were forecasting for a variety of organizations and using lots of tools – mostly spreadsheets. The forecasts were critical for the business and were used throughout the utility and by their customers. They also struggled with incorporating varying time horizons (short term: next hour, medium term: several weeks, and long-term: 20 years).

The redundant (and different) forecasts were not just inefficient — they also caused confusion for internal and external customers. People were receiving forecasts for the same period with differing values. Eyebrows were raising and heads were spinning.

The utility needed new tools and standard processes that would allow them to provide a consistent, accurate product – for everyone.

ACME was asked to find a solution to their problem.

Head-scratcher #1: The information was consumed by many different groups (economists, customers, power side of the business, hydro schedulers). Several groups were compiling the same basic information, only in different forms and with different results.

Head-scratcher #2: The implementation was complex. There were numerous requirements – and numerous interpretations of those requirements. Getting alignment and implementing a new system across an environment resistant to change called for some serious leadership and people skills.

The forecast: gloomy.

We started with an opportunity assessment. We mapped and captured the business processes, roles/responsibilities and tools used for load forecasting throughout the enterprise. We met with people, asked questions and listened between the lines of answers given. We identified frustration, inefficiency and redundancy.

We ultimately recommended that the client implement a new shared-service load forecasting organization with one team, one toolset, and clearly defined roles and responsibilities.

We then led the client through “to-be” process and organization design as well as the selection of a load forecasting application. We managed the entire project — from detailed design to system configuration, through testing, training and change management — for consolidation of roles and creation of a new organization.

Results? We helped the utility create a single forecasting entity, clarify and change processes, and document roles and responsibilities. Plus, we helped form a common toolset that successfully provides consistent forecasting for the utility and its customers.

The key ingredient? Leadership.

Once someone was in place to manage the new forecasting group, things started to happen. The supervisor was able to lead his staff through the change and get everyone on board.

Our forecast: happier employees and clients, and better forecasting.